Warranty Data Analysis Dates Format Example

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This example appears in the Life Data Analysis Reference book.


Dates of Failure Warranty Analysis

Assume that a company has the following information for a product.

Sales
Quantity In-Service Date In-Service
63161/1/2010
84472/1/2010
58923/1/2010
5964/1/2010
9965/1/2010
89776/1/2010
25787/1/2010
83188/1/2010
26679/1/2010
745210/1/2010
153311/1/2010
939312/1/2010
19661/1/2011
89602/1/2011
63413/1/2011
40054/1/2011
37845/1/2011
54266/1/2011
49587/1/2011
69818/1/2011


Returns
Quantity Returned Date of Return Date In-Service
210/29/201010/1/2010
111/13/201010/1/2010
23/15/201110/1/2010
54/10/201110/1/2010
111/13/201011/1/2010
22/19/201111/1/2010
13/11/201111/1/2010
25/18/201111/1/2010
11/9/201112/1/2010
22/13/201112/1/2010
13/2/201112/1/2010
16/7/201112/1/2010
14/28/20111/1/2011
26/15/20111/1/2011
37/15/20111/1/2011
18/10/20112/1/2011
18/12/20112/1/2011
18/14/20112/1/2011


Quantity In-Service Date In-Service
Future Sales
50009/1/2011
500010/1/2011
500011/1/2011
500012/1/2011
50001/1/2012

Using the given information to estimate the failure distribution of the product and forecast warranty returns.

Solution

Create a warranty analysis folio using the dates of failure format. Enter the data from the tables in the Sales, Returns and Future Sales sheets. On the control panel, click the Auto-Set button to automatically set the end date to the last day the warranty data were collected (September 14, 2011). Analyze the data using the 2P-Weibull distribution and RRX analysis method. The parameters are estimated to be beta = 1.315379 and eta = 102,381.486165.

The warranty folio automatically converts the warranty data into a format that can be used in a Weibull++ standard folio. To see this result, click anywhere within the Analysis Summary area of the control panel to open a report, as shown next (showing only the first 35 rows of data). In this example, rows 23 to 60 show the time-to-failure data that resulted from the conversion.

To generate a forecast, click the Forecast icon on the control panel. In the Forecast Setup window, set the forecast to start on September 2011 and set the number of forecast periods to 6. Set the increment (length of each period) to 1 Month, as shown next.

Click OK. A Forecast sheet will be created, with the predicted future returns. Note that the first forecast will start on September 15, 2011 because the end of observation period was set to September 14, 2011.

Click the Plot icon and choose the Expected Failures plot. The plot displays the predicted number of returns for each month, as shown next.

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